Wednesday, September 05, 2012


Before we are on to our next round of craziness here, I am hoping to get all the pictures from our adventures this summer loaded up. We'll see how that goes . . .

But as I only have a few minutes today I'd like to make a few predictions. Not that my track record is any more than mixed in this arena, or that my ideas are too original, but for what it is worth:

Obama and Biden win the 2012 election, narrowly. There is less of a mandate than in 2008. The economy will continue to stop and start because big business fear over a 2nd Obama term will keep them sitting on their money. The Democrats will make few gains in Senate or Congressional numbers--probably the Senate will stay the same and Congress will remain Republican but less so. Voter turn-out will be higher for Democrats--they seem almost as anti-Romney as Republicans do anti-Obama! The big difference is that more women will vote for Democrats. If the Republicans keep straying off message (economic downturn) and into issues like reproductive rights, they are going to sink even more.

Republicans, however will probably strike back again big in 2014 with the economy continuing to sputter. In 2016 they will run Marco Rubio and Chris Christie on the ballot. Neither of these gentleman, I think, chained their wagon to Romney because they don't think he can win and their ambitions are bigger than being a former vp nominee. I don't know who will run for which office, but I think with both of them on the ticket the Republicans are pretty unstoppable. Incidentally, this will also represent a c-change in the standard Republican thinking. Both of these men, Christie in particular, consider themselves to be social liberals. It will be interesting to see what kind of candidates a coalition of Libertarians and Conservative Christians continue to put together (the Mormon Romney, perhaps!), or if they can even continue to stay together. These two groups are both voting Republican currently but have major ideological differences on issues like gay marriage and war (on drugs or terrorism, take your pick).

The 2016 Democratic ticket will contain Elizabeth Warren. Probably as a vp. And, of course, provided she wins her race this fall. And . . . well it is hard to say who else. Okay, I'll be honest. I just would really like a chance to vote for her. As there are no immediate plans to move to Massachusetts, it must be a national election if I'll get to do it.

Republicans win in 2016 and the economy finally starts moving, mostly over perception that Republican policies will be better for business. I say perception because the historical reality of democratic vs. republican practices is worth discussion, and not nearly as cut and dried as "good" or "bad" for business as the pundits would want us to think.

That's all.


Jenny said...

There's a house for sale on my street.

Cathy said...

No Hilary Clinton? I'd hate to overlook her potential.