Thursday, January 03, 2008

My Predictions

Plantboy asked me what I thought happened at the Iowa caucus before revealing results. I called it--except for the Fred Thompson out of no where thing. I think that is just an attempt to vote for somebody DIFFERENT than the choices offered.

What do I think will happen?

Democrats: Obama will continue to gain momentum as independents frustrated with the Republican Party register as democrats to vote for him. Smart democrats will also vote Obama in order to get somebody less polarizing on the ballot because the Democrats really can't afford to lose another presidential election. Hard-line Democrats will absolutely not vote Republican no matter what, but I think Obama could win over a fair number of disillusioned Republicans that would NEVER vote for Clinton. Way too much history. John Edwards might raise a stink for a while, but Obama took 38% in Iowa. That is almost a mandate. (Even though voter turn-out was pathetic.)

Republicans: Romney and Huckabee will split the evangelicals in states where they turn out to vote. In states where evangelicals aren't as big a force, Romney will come out ahead. Unfortunately, Romney's tactics (running a lot of negative ads, critical of other candidates, etc.) is going to fracture the party. The best chance the elephants have for a November victory is to follow the Democratic lead and try to get somebody on the ballot who is an experienced bridge builder--John McCain. Yes, yes, Romney has been enormously successful in any venture he has undertaken, but he didn't spend 18 months alienating the people he was supposed to be working with before beginning any of his assignments either. However, ultimately, I think Romney will get the nomination by a very narrow percentage. In November Barack Obama will soundly beat any Republican candidate except McCain (which will be closer, but still a Democratic victory).

My dream team ballot? Barack Obama for President with running mate John McCain. Don't laugh, McCain was on John Kerry's short list for VP's.

6 comments:

on.the.run said...

Interesting...

I am trying not to get to excited about anyone yet.

Yankee Girl said...

I called Obama as well. I had hoped Romney would do better, but in the end expected Iowans to vote their religion so I wasn't surprised. I really don't care at all for McCain though so I don't want to see him in the mix. I think Obama is the biggest threat for Republicans (as it now stands) because he is so likeable. As the election continues though his lack of experience will be a problem. If Romney gets the nomination I think Republicans will want to see Clinton get the Democrat nomination. Romney will do well as long as the economy is the big issue.

Ashlee said...

Iowa doesn't forecast New Hampshire. Democrats won both contests only twice since 1976 and a Republican candidate has never accomplished that feat. Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan lost Iowa.

Doreen said...

I like your predictions, hehe. In a way, I can't wait till November. We need change, desperately.

Kimberly Bluestocking said...

I was so relieved that Obama won Iowa and Clinton got not second but third (!). I think you're right - he has an excellent chance of winning, while the Republicans are so divided and the candidates so uninspiring that the only way they have a prayer is if Clinton is nominated. And I pray that doesn't happen because she'd probably win.

Why do people always insist that Obama is inexperienced? I realize he hasn't been in D.C. long and he has made occasional missteps, but before the War in Iraq he had the sense to see (and say) it would be a quagmire, and all Ms. Clinton's "experience" didn't help her see that.

Science Teacher Mommy said...

I also think that sometimes experience isn't all it is cracked up to be. Sometimes that just makes a politician such and insider that it is the special interest groups really running the country. For me, his lack of experience and his campaign of "Change!" makes him the MOST desirable. If the only think Hilary has got on Barack is that he is inexperienced, then she'd better not plan on moving back to the White House.