Plantboy asked me what I thought happened at the Iowa caucus before revealing results. I called it--except for the Fred Thompson out of no where thing. I think that is just an attempt to vote for somebody DIFFERENT than the choices offered.
What do I think will happen?
Democrats: Obama will continue to gain momentum as independents frustrated with the Republican Party register as democrats to vote for him. Smart democrats will also vote Obama in order to get somebody less polarizing on the ballot because the Democrats really can't afford to lose another presidential election. Hard-line Democrats will absolutely not vote Republican no matter what, but I think Obama could win over a fair number of disillusioned Republicans that would NEVER vote for Clinton. Way too much history. John Edwards might raise a stink for a while, but Obama took 38% in Iowa. That is almost a mandate. (Even though voter turn-out was pathetic.)
Republicans: Romney and Huckabee will split the evangelicals in states where they turn out to vote. In states where evangelicals aren't as big a force, Romney will come out ahead. Unfortunately, Romney's tactics (running a lot of negative ads, critical of other candidates, etc.) is going to fracture the party. The best chance the elephants have for a November victory is to follow the Democratic lead and try to get somebody on the ballot who is an experienced bridge builder--John McCain. Yes, yes, Romney has been enormously successful in any venture he has undertaken, but he didn't spend 18 months alienating the people he was supposed to be working with before beginning any of his assignments either. However, ultimately, I think Romney will get the nomination by a very narrow percentage. In November Barack Obama will soundly beat any Republican candidate except McCain (which will be closer, but still a Democratic victory).
My dream team ballot? Barack Obama for President with running mate John McCain. Don't laugh, McCain was on John Kerry's short list for VP's.